Actual result
R+6.2
Final polls said
R+8.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.7 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+1.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 84% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-20 | 502 | R+8.5 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-10-05 | 404 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2018-09-26 | 574 | R+1.0 | 5 |