← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Mike Bost (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.2
Final polls said
R+8.5
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+1.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 83% | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-202
Global Strategy Group2018-10-055
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-09-265
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Mike Bost (R) won, by about 6.2 points (R+6.2).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.