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Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Rodney Davis (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+5.1
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.1 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Viewpoint | R+13.0 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-234
GBAO2018-10-030
American Viewpoint2018-09-3012
GBAO2018-09-104
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Rodney Davis (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.