Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+5.1
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.1 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+10.1 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Viewpoint | R+13.0 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-23 | 501 | R+5.1 | 4 |
| GBAO | 2018-10-03 | 500 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-09-30 | 400 | R+13.0 | 12 |
| GBAO | 2018-09-10 | 500 | R+5.0 | 4 |