Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+5.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 68% | 0.466 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 73% | 0.529 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-02 | 428 | D+5.2 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-05 | 501 | R+4.8 | 10 |