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Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Lauren Underwood (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+5.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.414 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 68% | 0.466 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena CollegeGrade A-11-022018-11-020
The New York Times/Siena CollegeGrade A-10-052018-10-0510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Lauren Underwood (D) won, by about 5.0 points (D+5.0).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.