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Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Lauren Underwood (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+5.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 68% | 0.466 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.513 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-020
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-0510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Lauren Underwood (D) won, by about 5.0 points (D+5.0).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.