Actual result
D+7.2
Final polls said
D+1.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.2 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.189 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.195 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 50% | 0.247 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-23 | 497 | D+1.2 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-09-30 | 400 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-09-09 | 402 | D+3.0 | 4 |