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Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Sean Casten (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.2
Final polls said
D+1.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.2 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.189 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.195 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-236
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-09-302
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-09-094
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Sean Casten (D) won, by about 7.2 points (D+7.2).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.