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Toss-up · 2018 House
Illinois House
In the 2018 Illinois House race, Sean Casten (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.2
Final polls said
D+1.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.2 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.189 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.195 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-236
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-09-302
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-09-094
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois House race?
Sean Casten (D) won, by about 7.2 points (D+7.2).
When was the 2018 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2018.