Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+1.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+6.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.311 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-29 | 501 | D+4.5 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 902 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 231 | R+6.9 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-27 | 243 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-14 | 500 | D+1.0 | 2 |