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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Steve Watkins (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+1.1
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+6.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.311 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-295
Change Research2018-10-280
Emerson College2018-10-276
Emerson College2018-09-275
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-142
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Steve Watkins (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.