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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Steve Watkins (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+1.1
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+6.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 56% | 0.311 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-295
Change Research2018-10-280
Emerson College2018-10-276
Emerson College2018-09-275
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-142
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Steve Watkins (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.