Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+0.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 57% | 0.183 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-03 | 438 | R+0.4 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-10-07 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-10-01 | 501 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2018-09-14 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-07 | 506 | R+1.0 | 2 |