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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kentucky House
In the 2018 Kentucky House race, Andy Barr (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+0.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 55% | 0.201 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-033
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-071
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-10-0110
Rasmussen Reports2018-09-143
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-072
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kentucky House race?
Andy Barr (R) won, by about 3.2 points (R+3.2).
When was the 2018 Kentucky House election held?
It was held in November 2018.