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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kentucky House
In the 2018 Kentucky House race, Andy Barr (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+0.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 55% | 0.201 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-033
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-071
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2018-10-0110
Rasmussen Reports2018-09-143
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-072
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kentucky House race?
Andy Barr (R) won, by about 3.2 points (R+3.2).
When was the 2018 Kentucky House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.