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Toss-up · 2018 House
Maine House
In the 2018 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+0.5 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 51% | 0.238 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-280
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-171
Global Strategy Group2018-10-115
Pan Atlantic Research2018-10-042
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-137
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maine House race?
Jared Forrest Golden (D) won, by about 1.3 points (D+1.3).
When was the 2018 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.