Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+0.5 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.258 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 441 | D+1.1 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-17 | 501 | D+0.1 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-10-11 | 400 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2018-10-04 | 251 | R+0.5 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-13 | 506 | R+5.7 | 7 |