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Toss-up · 2018 House
Maine House
In the 2018 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+0.5 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 51% | 0.238 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-280
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-171
Global Strategy Group2018-10-115
Pan Atlantic Research2018-10-042
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-137
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maine House race?
Jared Forrest Golden (D) won, by about 1.3 points (D+1.3).
When was the 2018 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2018.