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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Haley Stevens (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harper Polling | D+1.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Target Insyght | EVEN | 6.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Target Insyght2018-10-167
Harper Polling2018-10-126
Impact Research2018-10-123
Impact Research2018-10-032
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-031
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Haley Stevens (D) won, by about 6.7 points (D+6.7).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.