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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Haley Stevens (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harper Polling | D+1.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Target Insyght | EVEN | 6.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Target Insyght2018-10-167
Harper Polling2018-10-126
Impact Research2018-10-123
Impact Research2018-10-032
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-031
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Haley Stevens (D) won, by about 6.7 points (D+6.7).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.