Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harper Polling | D+1.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Target Insyght | EVEN | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+0.4 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.119 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Insyght | 2018-10-16 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |
| Harper Polling | 2018-10-12 | 400 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2018-10-12 | 513 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2018-10-03 | 503 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-03 | 465 | D+7.6 | 1 |