Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.7 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 67% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 460 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 466 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2018-10-09 | 605 | R+3.0 | 2 |