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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Fred Upton (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-037
Change Research2018-10-282
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-10-092
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Fred Upton (R) won, by about 4.5 points (R+4.5).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.