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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Fred Upton (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-037
Change Research2018-10-282
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-10-092
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Fred Upton (R) won, by about 4.5 points (R+4.5).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.