Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+1.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+2.5 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | Target Insyght | R+3.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.262 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 501 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-02 | 447 | D+6.6 | 3 |
| Target Insyght | 2018-10-16 | 500 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-30 | 501 | R+3.4 | 7 |
| GQR | 2018-09-19 | 400 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-09-17 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |