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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+1.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Target Insyght | R+3.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 51% | 0.239 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-033
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-023
Target Insyght2018-10-167
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-307
GQR2018-09-190
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Elissa Slotkin (D) won, by about 3.8 points (D+3.8).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.