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Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+1.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Target Insyght | R+3.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-033
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-023
Target Insyght2018-10-167
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-307
GQR2018-09-190
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Elissa Slotkin (D) won, by about 3.8 points (D+3.8).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.