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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Jim Hagedorn (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 52% | 0.268 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.285 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.456 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-182
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Jim Hagedorn (R) won, by about 0.5 points (R+0.5).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.