Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 52% | 0.268 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.285 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-18 | 586 | D+2.0 | 2 |