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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Jim Hagedorn (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.217 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 52% | 0.268 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.285 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-182
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Jim Hagedorn (R) won, by about 0.5 points (R+0.5).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.