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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Angie Craig (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.046 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.110 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2018-10-113
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-017
WPA Intelligence2018-09-309
SurveyUSA2018-09-203
Public Policy Polling2018-09-173
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Angie Craig (D) won, by about 5.5 points (D+5.5).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.