Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.7 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.046 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.110 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-10-11 | 400 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-01 | 487 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2018-09-30 | 412 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-20 | 569 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 531 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-15 | 400 | D+8.0 | 2 |