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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Angie Craig (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.046 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.110 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2018-10-113
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-017
WPA Intelligence2018-09-309
SurveyUSA2018-09-203
Public Policy Polling2018-09-173
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Angie Craig (D) won, by about 5.5 points (D+5.5).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.