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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Dean Phillips (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-09-266
Public Policy Polling2018-09-172
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-082
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Dean Phillips (D) won, by about 11.4 points (D+11.4).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.