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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Dean Phillips (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-09-266
Public Policy Polling2018-09-172
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-082
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Dean Phillips (D) won, by about 11.4 points (D+11.4).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.