Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-26 | 607 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 538 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-08 | 500 | D+9.0 | 2 |