← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Pete Stauber (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+4.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+1.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+15.7 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.143 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-1310
Victoria Research & Consulting2018-09-297
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-087
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Pete Stauber (R) won, by about 5.5 points (R+5.5).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.