Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+4.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+1.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.6 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+15.7 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 90% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.143 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-13 | 507 | R+15.7 | 10 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2018-09-29 | 400 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-08 | 504 | D+1.0 | 7 |