Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+7.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+8.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory | D+0.5 | 5.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.070 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 60% | 0.157 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 879 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-25 | 782 | EVEN | 5 |
| University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory | 2018-10-14 | 533 | D+0.5 | 5 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2018-10-10 | 471 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2018-09-25 | 2079 | R+7.5 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-09-21 | 710 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 2018-09-11 | 950 | R+1.0 | 4 |