Toss-up · 2018 House

Montana House

In the 2018 Montana House race, Greg Gianforte (R) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

R+4.6

Final polls said

R+4.0

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Montana State University Billings	R+3.0	1.6	✓
2	Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab	R+7.5	2.9	✓
3	Change Research	R+8.0	3.4	✓
4	Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group	R+1.0	3.6	✓
5	Gravis Marketing	EVEN	4.6	✗
6	University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory	D+0.5	5.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.032	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 74%	0.070	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 73%	0.076	✓
6	The Economist	Rep 60%	0.157	✓