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Toss-up · 2018 House
Montana House
In the 2018 Montana House race, Greg Gianforte (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+7.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+8.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory | D+0.5 | 5.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.070 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 60% | 0.157 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-033
Gravis Marketing2018-10-255
University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory2018-10-145
Montana State University Billings2018-10-102
Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab2018-09-253
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Montana House race?
Greg Gianforte (R) won, by about 4.6 points (R+4.6).
When was the 2018 Montana House election held?
It was held in November 2018.