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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Carolina House
In the 2018 North Carolina House race, Ted Budd (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+4.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
SurveyUSA2018-10-113
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-050
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-09-1310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Carolina House race?
Ted Budd (R) won, by about 6.0 points (R+6.0).
When was the 2018 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2018.