Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+4.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 65% | 0.124 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 567 | EVEN | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-11 | 533 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-05 | 500 | R+5.9 | 0 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2018-09-13 | 537 | D+4.0 | 10 |