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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Carolina House
In the 2018 North Carolina House race, Ted Budd (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+4.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
SurveyUSA2018-10-113
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-050
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-09-1310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Carolina House race?
Ted Budd (R) won, by about 6.0 points (R+6.0).
When was the 2018 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.