Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.4 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-26 | 565 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-07 | 538 | D+1.0 | 6 |