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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Carolina House
In the 2018 North Carolina House race, George Holding (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-264
SurveyUSA2018-09-076
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Carolina House race?
George Holding (R) won, by about 5.5 points (R+5.5).
When was the 2018 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.