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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Carolina House
In the 2018 North Carolina House race, George Holding (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-264
SurveyUSA2018-09-076
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Carolina House race?
George Holding (R) won, by about 5.5 points (R+5.5).
When was the 2018 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2018.