Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DFM Research | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Meeting Street Insights | R+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+9.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+12.9 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFM Research | 2018-10-24 | 350 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Meeting Street Insights | 2018-10-01 | 400 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2018-09-29 | 400 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-25 | 512 | R+9.2 | 7 |