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Toss-up · 2018 House
Nebraska House
In the 2018 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DFM Research | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Meeting Street Insights | R+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+9.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DFM Research2018-10-245
Meeting Street Insights2018-10-017
GQR2018-09-292
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-257
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 2.0 points (R+2.0).
When was the 2018 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.