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Toss-up · 2018 House
Nebraska House
In the 2018 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DFM Research | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Meeting Street Insights | R+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+9.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DFM Research2018-10-245
Meeting Street Insights2018-10-017
GQR2018-09-292
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-257
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 2.0 points (R+2.0).
When was the 2018 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2018.