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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2018 New Hampshire House race, Chris Pappas (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+7.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+8.9 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+22.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 77% | 0.051 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-10-287
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-10-140
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2018-10-120
Emerson College2018-10-113
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Hampshire House race?
Chris Pappas (D) won, by about 8.6 points (D+8.6).
When was the 2018 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.