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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2018 New Hampshire House race, Chris Pappas (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+7.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+8.9 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+22.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 77% | 0.051 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-10-287
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-10-140
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2018-10-120
Emerson College2018-10-113
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Hampshire House race?
Chris Pappas (D) won, by about 8.6 points (D+8.6).
When was the 2018 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2018.