Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+7.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+8.9 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.9 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+22.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 77% | 0.051 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-11-03 | 309 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 570 | D+1.7 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-10-14 | 265 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2018-10-12 | 234 | D+8.9 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 387 | D+5.4 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2018-09-26 | 400 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2018-09-23 | 400 | D+22.0 | 13 |