Actual result
D+14.6
Final polls said
D+10.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+10.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.3 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | D+3.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-15 | 487 | D+10.4 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-05 | 356 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| National Research | 2018-09-26 | 400 | D+3.0 | 12 |