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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Mikie Sherrill (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+14.6
Final polls said
D+10.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+10.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | National Research | D+3.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-154
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-0512
National Research2018-09-2612
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Mikie Sherrill (D) won, by about 14.6 points (D+14.6).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.