← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Andy Kim (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.6 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+1.4 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | National Research | R+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.205 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.206 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-232
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-202
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2018-10-073
National Research2018-10-035
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Andy Kim (D) won, by about 1.3 points (D+1.3).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.