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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Andy Kim (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.6 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+1.4 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | National Research | R+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.205 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.206 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-232
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-202
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2018-10-073
National Research2018-10-035
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Andy Kim (D) won, by about 1.3 points (D+1.3).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.