Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.6 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+1.4 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | National Research | R+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.205 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.206 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.262 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-23 | 508 | R+0.6 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-20 | 363 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2018-10-07 | 546 | R+1.4 | 3 |
| National Research | 2018-10-03 | 400 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-24 | 499 | D+10.4 | 9 |