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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Josh Gottheimer (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+13.7
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+9.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 84% | 0.025 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
McLaughlin & Associates2018-10-145
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Josh Gottheimer (D) won, by about 13.7 points (D+13.7).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.