Actual result
D+13.7
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.9 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+9.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-10-14 | 400 | D+9.0 | 5 |