Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.150 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-30 | 503 | D+7.9 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-27 | 356 | EVEN | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-19 | 504 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-15 | 365 | D+6.0 | 1 |