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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Tom Malinowski (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.140 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-303
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-275
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-196
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-151
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Tom Malinowski (D) won, by about 5.0 points (D+5.0).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.