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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Tom Malinowski (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.140 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-303
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-275
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-196
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-151
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Tom Malinowski (D) won, by about 5.0 points (D+5.0).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.