Actual result
D+22.8
Final polls said
D+10.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+12.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+9.0 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Carroll Strategies | D+7.9 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 452 | D+7.9 | 15 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-10-29 | 419 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 327 | D+10.0 | 13 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-09-10 | 410 | D+8.0 | 15 |