← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
New Mexico House
In the 2018 New Mexico House race, Debra A. Haaland (D) won by about 23 points.
Actual result
D+22.8
Final polls said
D+10.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+12.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Carroll Strategies | D+7.9 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Carroll Strategies2018-10-2915
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-2911
Emerson College2018-10-2513
Research & Polling Inc.2018-09-1015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico House race?
Debra A. Haaland (D) won, by about 22.8 points (D+22.8).
When was the 2018 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.