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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Mexico House
In the 2018 New Mexico House race, Debra A. Haaland (D) won by about 23 points.
Actual result
D+22.8
Final polls said
D+10.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+12.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Carroll Strategies | D+7.9 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Carroll Strategies2018-10-2915
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-2911
Emerson College2018-10-2513
Research & Polling Inc.2018-09-1015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico House race?
Debra A. Haaland (D) won, by about 22.8 points (D+22.8).
When was the 2018 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2018.