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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Mexico House
In the 2018 New Mexico House race, Xochitl Torres Small (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.9
Final polls said
R+1.4
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+0.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Carroll Strategies | R+5.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 60% | 0.359 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.369 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-293
Carroll Strategies2018-10-297
Emerson College2018-10-251
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-212
Tarrance Group2018-10-016
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico House race?
Xochitl Torres Small (D) won, by about 1.9 points (D+1.9).
When was the 2018 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.