Actual result
D+1.9
Final polls said
R+1.4
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+6.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+0.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Carroll Strategies | R+5.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+6.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.369 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 63% | 0.392 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-10-29 | 413 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Carroll Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 338 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 278 | D+0.4 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-21 | 522 | R+0.1 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2018-10-01 | 400 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-15 | 503 | D+0.7 | 1 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-09-10 | 405 | R+7.0 | 9 |