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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Mexico House
In the 2018 New Mexico House race, Xochitl Torres Small (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.9
Final polls said
R+1.4
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+0.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Carroll Strategies | R+5.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 60% | 0.359 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.369 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-293
Carroll Strategies2018-10-297
Emerson College2018-10-251
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-212
Tarrance Group2018-10-016
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico House race?
Xochitl Torres Small (D) won, by about 1.9 points (D+1.9).
When was the 2018 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2018.