Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+9.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+9.2 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.8 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 73% | 0.074 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 332 | D+9.2 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 178 | D+1.7 | 7 |