Actual result
D+8.2
Final polls said
D+3.8
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+3.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 263 | D+3.8 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 157 | D+1.7 | 6 |
| Moore Information Group | 2018-10-05 | 400 | R+4.0 | 12 |