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Toss-up · 2018 House
Nevada House
In the 2018 Nevada House race, Steven A. Horsford (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.2
Final polls said
D+3.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+3.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-10-116
Moore Information Group2018-10-0512
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nevada House race?
Steven A. Horsford (D) won, by about 8.2 points (D+8.2).
When was the 2018 Nevada House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.