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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Lee M. Zeldin (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+3.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.1 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+15.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-2816
GBAO2018-10-094
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-069
Global Strategy Group2018-09-144
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Lee M. Zeldin (R) won, by about 4.1 points (R+4.1).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.