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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Perry Gershon (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | GBAO | R+3.3 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+15.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.626 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 89% | 0.797 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.914 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.922 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-2816
GBAO2018-10-094
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-069
Global Strategy Group2018-09-144
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Perry Gershon (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.