Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+13.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | GBAO | R+3.3 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+13.7 | 14.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Change Research | R+15.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.626 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 89% | 0.798 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.914 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.922 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 838 | R+15.0 | 16 |
| GBAO | 2018-10-09 | 500 | R+3.3 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-06 | 502 | R+8.1 | 9 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-14 | 400 | R+3.0 | 4 |