Actual result
D+8.5
Final polls said
R+3.3
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+3.3 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.1 | 15.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.402 | ✗ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 86% | 0.740 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 88% | 0.774 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-25 | 495 | R+3.3 | 12 |