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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Antonio Delgado (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.1
Final polls said
D+1.2
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.248 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-036
SurveyUSA2018-10-288
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-266
Siena College2018-10-149
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-082
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Antonio Delgado (D) won, by about 8.1 points (D+8.1).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.