Actual result
D+8.1
Final polls said
D+1.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+2.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.258 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-03 | 505 | D+1.7 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-28 | 609 | EVEN | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-26 | 372 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-14 | 500 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-08 | 327 | D+6.0 | 2 |