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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Antonio Delgado (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+1.2
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+1.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.248 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-036
SurveyUSA2018-10-288
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-266
Siena College2018-10-149
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-082
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Antonio Delgado (D) won, by about 5.2 points (D+5.2).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.