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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Anthony J. Brindisi (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+8.0 | 10.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.341 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.375 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.382 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-033
Siena College2018-10-171
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-1210
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Anthony J. Brindisi (D) won, by about 2.3 points (D+2.3).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.