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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Anthony J. Brindisi (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+8.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.341 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.375 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.382 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-033
Siena College2018-10-171
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-1210
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Anthony J. Brindisi (D) won, by about 1.8 points (D+1.8).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.