Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.6 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+8.0 | 10.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.341 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.375 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 65% | 0.416 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-03 | 506 | R+0.9 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-17 | 501 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2018-10-12 | 400 | R+8.0 | 10 |