Actual result
R+5.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 78% | 0.047 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-23 | 510 | R+2.0 | 4 |