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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Thomas Reed (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 78% | 0.047 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-234
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Thomas Reed (R) won, by about 5.7 points (R+5.7).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.