Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+17.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+14.0 | 14.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+17.6 | 18.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.565 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 97% | 0.935 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.940 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2018-10-20 | 500 | R+14.0 | 15 |