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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Dana Balter (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+14.0 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.565 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 96% | 0.930 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.940 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2018-10-2015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Dana Balter (D) won, by about 0.9 points (D+0.9).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.