Actual result
D+20.7
Final polls said
D+9.1
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+17.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dixie Strategies | D+9.1 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 843 | D+9.1 | 11 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-06 | 465 | D+17.0 | 4 |