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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Joseph D. Morelle (D) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
D+21.0
Final polls said
D+9.1
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dixie Strategies | D+9.1 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dixie Strategies2018-10-2911
Siena College2018-10-064
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Joseph D. Morelle (D) won, by about 21.0 points (D+21.0).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.