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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Nate McMurray (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
R+2.5
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulchin Research | D+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Dixie Strategies | R+7.2 | 12.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 65% | 0.426 | ✗ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.471 | ✗ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 70% | 0.486 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dixie Strategies2018-10-2912
Tulchin Research2018-10-271
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-269
Siena College2018-10-088
Tulchin Research2018-10-075
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Nate McMurray (D) won, by about 4.8 points (D+4.8).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.