Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
R+2.5
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulchin Research | D+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Dixie Strategies | R+7.2 | 12.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 67% | 0.443 | ✗ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.471 | ✗ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 70% | 0.486 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 801 | R+7.2 | 12 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-10-27 | 400 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-26 | 501 | R+4.4 | 9 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-08 | 490 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-10-07 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |