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Toss-up · 2018 House
New York House
In the 2018 New York House race, Chris Collins (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
R+2.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Dixie Strategies | R+7.2 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 70% | 0.092 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.098 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dixie Strategies2018-10-2912
Tulchin Research2018-10-271
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-269
Siena College2018-10-088
Tulchin Research2018-10-075
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York House race?
Chris Collins (R) won, by about 0.4 points (R+0.4).
When was the 2018 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2018.