Actual result
R+4.4
Final polls said
R+5.8
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.4 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 457 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-22 | 492 | R+8.7 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-29 | 503 | R+9.3 | 5 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-09-19 | 400 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2018-09-12 | 500 | D+2.0 | 6 |