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Toss-up · 2018 House
Ohio House
In the 2018 Ohio House race, Steve Chabot (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.4
Final polls said
R+5.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-031
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-224
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-295
American Viewpoint2018-09-193
GBAO2018-09-126
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio House race?
Steve Chabot (R) won, by about 4.4 points (R+4.4).
When was the 2018 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2018.