Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | JMC Analytics | R+11.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.223 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2018-10-21 | 570 | EVEN | 4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2018-10-12 | 639 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2018-08-03 | 431 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-07-28 | 617 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-07-28 | 423 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| GBAO | 2018-07-24 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| GBAO | 2018-07-12 | 600 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| JMC Analytics | 2018-06-15 | 500 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| GBAO | 2018-06-11 | 500 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-06-09 | 263 | R+15.0 | 14 |