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Toss-up · 2018 House
Ohio House
In the 2018 Ohio House race, Troy Balderson (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.2
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | EVEN | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | JMC Analytics | R+11.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.223 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2018-10-214
Clarity Campaign Labs2018-10-122
Emerson College2018-08-032
Public Policy Polling2018-07-283
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-07-282
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio House race?
Troy Balderson (R) won, by about 4.2 points (R+4.2).
When was the 2018 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2018.