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Toss-up · 2018 House
Ohio House
In the 2018 Ohio House race, Troy Balderson (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.2
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | EVEN | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | JMC Analytics | R+11.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.223 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2018-10-214
Clarity Campaign Labs2018-10-122
Emerson College2018-08-032
Public Policy Polling2018-07-283
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-07-282
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio House race?
Troy Balderson (R) won, by about 4.2 points (R+4.2).
When was the 2018 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.