Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+12.1
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+18.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+16.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | R+7.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+6.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2018-10-31 | 800 | R+18.3 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-25 | 682 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| Mellman Group | 2018-10-05 | 400 | R+7.0 | 10 |