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Toss-up · 2018 House
Ohio House
In the 2018 Ohio House race, Bob Gibbs (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+12.1
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+18.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | R+7.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+6.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2018-10-311
Change Research2018-10-2511
Mellman Group2018-10-0510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio House race?
Bob Gibbs (R) won, by about 17.5 points (R+17.5).
When was the 2018 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.