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Toss-up · 2018 House
Ohio House
In the 2018 Ohio House race, Bob Gibbs (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+12.1
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+18.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | R+7.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+6.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2018-10-311
Change Research2018-10-2511
Mellman Group2018-10-0510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio House race?
Bob Gibbs (R) won, by about 17.5 points (R+17.5).
When was the 2018 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2018.