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Toss-up · 2018 House
Oregon House
In the 2018 Oregon House race, Kurt Schrader (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.2
Final polls said
R+23.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+23.0 | 36.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.262 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-0836
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oregon House race?
Kurt Schrader (D) won, by about 13.2 points (D+13.2).
When was the 2018 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.