Actual result
D+13.2
Final polls said
R+23.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+25.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+23.0 | 36.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+25.1 | 38.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.262 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-08 | 359 | R+23.0 | 36 |