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Toss-up · 2018 House
Oregon House
In the 2018 Oregon House race, Kurt Schrader (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.2
Final polls said
R+23.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+23.0 | 36.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.989 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-0836
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oregon House race?
Kurt Schrader (D) won, by about 13.2 points (D+13.2).
When was the 2018 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2018.