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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
D+1.3
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | TargetPoint | D+4.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.328 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-281
TargetPoint2018-10-157
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-1310
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-035
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won, by about 2.5 points (R+2.5).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.