Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
D+1.3
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | TargetPoint | D+4.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 54% | 0.291 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-28 | 502 | R+1.3 | 1 |
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 400 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-13 | 570 | D+7.2 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-10-03 | 400 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-29 | 353 | R+7.0 | 4 |