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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
D+1.3
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | TargetPoint | D+4.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.328 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-281
TargetPoint2018-10-157
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-1310
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-035
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won, by about 2.5 points (R+2.5).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.