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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Scott Perry (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+2.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.079 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.166 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-251
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-200
Public Policy Polling2018-09-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Scott Perry (R) won, by about 2.6 points (R+2.6).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.