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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Scott Perry (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+2.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.079 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.166 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-251
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-200
Public Policy Polling2018-09-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Scott Perry (R) won, by about 2.6 points (R+2.6).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.