Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+2.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.2 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.070 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.166 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-25 | 498 | R+1.6 | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2018-10-20 | 366 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-24 | 650 | R+1.0 | 2 |