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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Lloyd K. Smucker (R) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
R+17.9
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+9.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+4.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-2114
Public Policy Polling2018-09-129
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Lloyd K. Smucker (R) won, by about 17.9 points (R+17.9).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.