Actual result
R+17.9
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+9.7 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+9.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+4.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.013 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2018-10-21 | 311 | R+4.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-12 | 552 | R+9.0 | 9 |