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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Mike Kelly (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-298
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-10-091
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-074
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Mike Kelly (R) won, by about 4.3 points (R+4.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.