Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 64% | 0.132 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2018-10-29 | 405 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2018-10-09 | 548 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-07 | 532 | R+8.6 | 4 |