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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Mike Kelly (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-298
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-10-091
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-074
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Mike Kelly (R) won, by about 4.3 points (R+4.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.