Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 4.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-03-10 | 372 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| RABA Research | 2018-03-07 | 707 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-03-03 | 911 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-03-02 | 474 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-02-14 | 320 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-02-14 | 602 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| DFM Research | 2018-01-18 | 384 | R+3.0 | 3 |