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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Conor Lamb (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.287 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-03-102
RABA Research2018-03-074
Gravis Marketing2018-03-033
Emerson College2018-03-023
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-02-144
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Conor Lamb (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.