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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Conor Lamb (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.286 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-03-102
RABA Research2018-03-074
Gravis Marketing2018-03-033
Emerson College2018-03-023
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-02-144
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Conor Lamb (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.