Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | D+11.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2018-10-16 | 411 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | 2018-10-13 | 809 | D+11.1 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-23 | 539 | D+8.5 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-07 | 299 | D+4.0 | 6 |