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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Susan Wild (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | D+11.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2018-10-163
DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center2018-10-131
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-232
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-076
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Susan Wild (D) won, by about 10.0 points (D+10.0).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.