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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Susan Wild (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | D+11.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2018-10-163
DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center2018-10-131
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-232
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-076
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Susan Wild (D) won, by about 10.0 points (D+10.0).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.