Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+14.8
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.8 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+17.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.261 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2018-10-28 | 446 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-18 | 506 | D+12.6 | 3 |