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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+14.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+17.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-288
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-183
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Matt Cartwright (D) won, by about 9.3 points (D+9.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.