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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+14.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+12.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+17.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2018-10-288
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-183
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Matt Cartwright (D) won, by about 9.3 points (D+9.3).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.