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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Will Hurd (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
R+15.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+15.4 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | R+25.0 | 24.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-1515
GS Strategy Group2018-10-0325
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-108
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Will Hurd (R) won, by about 0.4 points (R+0.4).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.