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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Will Hurd (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
R+15.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+15.4 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | R+25.0 | 24.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-1515
GS Strategy Group2018-10-0325
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-108
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Will Hurd (R) won, by about 0.4 points (R+0.4).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.