Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
R+15.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+15.4 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+20.2 | 19.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | GS Strategy Group | R+25.0 | 24.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-15 | 488 | R+15.4 | 15 |
| GS Strategy Group | 2018-10-03 | 400 | R+25.0 | 25 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-10 | 495 | R+8.0 | 8 |