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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Colin Allred (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 58% | 0.174 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.327 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-013
GBAO2018-09-226
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-218
Public Policy Polling2018-09-172
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Colin Allred (D) won, by about 6.5 points (D+6.5).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.