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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Colin Allred (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 58% | 0.175 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.327 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-013
GBAO2018-09-226
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-218
Public Policy Polling2018-09-172
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Colin Allred (D) won, by about 6.5 points (D+6.5).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.