Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 56% | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.327 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-01 | 477 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2018-09-22 | 600 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-21 | 500 | R+1.6 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 555 | D+5.0 | 2 |