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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Lizzie Fletcher (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.241 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.242 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-226
Public Policy Polling2018-09-173
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-169
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Lizzie Fletcher (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.