Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.241 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.242 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.432 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-22 | 499 | R+0.9 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 562 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-16 | 500 | R+3.4 | 9 |