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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Lizzie Fletcher (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.241 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.242 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.406 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-226
Public Policy Polling2018-09-173
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-169
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Lizzie Fletcher (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.