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Toss-up · 2018 House
Utah House
In the 2018 Utah House race, Ben McAdams (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+3.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.3 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Dixie Strategies | D+6.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Y2 Analytics | R+9.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.135 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.321 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dixie Strategies2018-10-256
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-250
Mellman Group2018-10-091
University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics2018-10-070
Y2 Analytics2018-09-079
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Utah House race?
Ben McAdams (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2018 Utah House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.