Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+3.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.3 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Dixie Strategies | D+6.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Y2 Analytics | R+9.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 62% | 0.145 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.321 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-10-25 | 936 | D+6.5 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-25 | 526 | D+0.3 | 0 |
| Mellman Group | 2018-10-09 | 400 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | 2018-10-07 | 403 | EVEN | 0 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2018-09-07 | 405 | R+9.0 | 9 |