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Toss-up · 2018 House
Utah House
In the 2018 Utah House race, Ben McAdams (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+3.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.3 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Dixie Strategies | D+6.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Y2 Analytics | R+9.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.321 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dixie Strategies2018-10-256
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-250
Mellman Group2018-10-091
University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics2018-10-070
Y2 Analytics2018-09-079
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Utah House race?
Ben McAdams (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2018 Utah House election held?
It was held in November 2018.